Modeling transmission dynamics of black band disease on coral reefs: temperature dependent microbiomes

Black band disease (BBD) is one of the most prevalent diseases causing significant destruction of coral reefs. Coral reefs acquire this deadly disease from bacteria in the microbiome community, the composition of which is highly affected by the environmental temperature. While previous studies have provided useful insights into various aspects of BBD, the temperature-dependent microbiome composition has not been considered in existing models. We develop a transmission dynamics model, incorporating the effects of temperature on the microbiome composition, and subsequently on BBD of coral reef. Based on our model, we calculate the basic reproduction number, providing an environmental threshold for the disease to exist in the coral reef community. Our results suggest that temperature has a significant impact on coral reef health, with higher environmental temperatures resulting in more coral infected with BBD in general. Our model and related results are useful in investigating potential strategies to protect reef ecosystems from stressors, including BBD.