Modelling COVID-19 Dynamics with Different Community Quarantine Protocols in National Capital Region, Philippines

The state of the pandemic in the Philippines surpasses 740,000 cumulative cases with very limited healthcare capacity as of March 30, 2021. Nearly half of this number comes from the National Capital Region of the Philippines. The response of the government is the implementation of the region-restricted Community Quarantines (CQ) labeled as Enhanced, Modified Enhanced, General, and Modified General. An SEIR mathematical model is developed to describe the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 infection in the Philippines' capital region. The different tiers of CQs and non-pharmaceutical interventions are incorporated using population factors and a function affecting the susceptible and exposed compartments. The available data on cases and deaths are utilized for parameter estimation and uncertainty analyses of the model. Key model parameters that indicate the dynamics of the model are identified for different CQ periods. A more relaxed CQ level leads to more infections which can be attributed to the correspondent increase in the interacting population. The model could be developed for reliable use in short-term forecasting that may aid decision-making, such as in crafting and implementing CQs.