Fractional modeling of the population dynamics of COVID-19 in Brazil

At the end of December 2019, there was an outbreak of pneumonia accompanied by fever, dry cough, fatigue and possible gastrointestinal problems, which initially occurred in Wuhan, China, the virus responsible for the infection was sequenced and became known as SARS-CoV-2 and the disease caused by its infection, such as Coronavirus Disease, 2019 (COVID-19). The first case of COVID-19 in Brazil was on February 25, 2020. On March 23, we reached the mark of 12.047.526 cases and 295.425 deaths from COVID-19. In this work, we present a model of fractional differential equations, aiming to embed the effect of simplifications in the non-integer order of the derivative. We use FracPECE, which is an algorithm to find the numerical solution of a system of non-linear fractional differential equations (FDE) and the least squares method to estimate the model parameters.