A spatio-temporal model for the spread of chronic wasting disease

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion-based transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in deer species (cervids) that results in 100% mortality. It poses a threat to cervid populations and the local ecological and economic communities that depend on them. Although empirical studies have shown that host social grouping, home range overlap, and male dispersal are essential in the disease spread, few mechanistic models explicitly consider those factors. We present a spatio-temporal, differential equation model in 2D space for CWD spread. This model includes direct and environmental transmission for an age-structured population where vital rates are influenced by CWD infection, and grouping, home range sizes, and habitat preferences change with the season. We show how the spreading speed of CWD and the basic reproduction number in 2D space respond to the seasonal changes in demographics, resource distribution, and epidemiological parameters. We will use this framework to assess demographic and spatial harvesting strategies in the future.