Modeling Public Health Impact of E-Cigarettes on Adolescents and Adults

Since the introduction of electronic cigarettes into the United States market in 2007, vaping usage has surged in both adult and adolescent populations. E-cigarettes are advertised as a safer alter-native to traditional cigarettes and as a method of smoking cessation, but the US government and health professionals are concerned that e-cigarettes attract young non-smokers. Here we develop and analyze a dynamical model of competition between traditional and electronic cigarettes for adult and adolescent users. With this model, we address three urgent questions: (1) how did the introduction of e-cigarettes influence the prevalence of smoking, (2) what is the predicted number of traditional smokers diverted to vaping after its inception, and (3) from a public health perspective, do e-cigarettes present a net benefit or harm to society?