Modeling testing strategies to reduce SARS-COV-2 transmission

Tuesday, June 15 at 03:15pm (PDT)
Tuesday, June 15 at 11:15pm (BST)
Wednesday, June 16 07:15am (KST)

SMB2021 SMB2021 Follow Tuesday (Wednesday) during the "PS02" time block.
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Quiyana Murphy

Virginia Tech
"Modeling testing strategies to reduce SARS-COV-2 transmission"
As vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are not yet available for everyone, it is important to implement non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Testing is a necessary factor in quantifying the number of infected individuals and reducing their interaction with the population (isolation). Additionally, identifying positive cases allows public health officials to track transmission via contact tracing and prevent additional infections with quarantine. To better inform testing strategies, we develop a deterministic ordinary differential equation mathematical model for given available resources in a community. Specifically, our model includes various characteristics to be attributed to the variability in testing strategies, including the sensitivity of testing, availability of testing, delay in testing results, and priority of testing. Three different tests with varying sensitivity, availability, and return time are incorporated: antibody tests, RT-PCR tests, and antigen tests. Three scenarios are considered to investigate the effects of priority testing on disease transmission: test only symptomatic individuals, equally spread available tests across all testable populations (surveillance), and prioritize tests for symptomatic individuals but use the remaining testing for surveillance. Our model can determine which allocation of testing type and strategy will most significantly decrease the infectious population (peak and duration) given locally available testing information.

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