Assessing the Effect of Temperature on Multi-Strain Dengue Transmission Dynamics in the Philippines

Dengue is one of the most important infectious diseases with more than 55% of the world population at risk of acquiring the infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of dengue outbreaks in the world. In this paper, we propose an SEIR model for the human population and an SEI model for the vector population by incorporating temperature-dependent parameters to describe the transmission dynamics of a multi-strain dengue model. Sensitivity analysis of both the constant and temperature-dependent parameters are performed to explore the effects of the changes in temperature on the multi-strain dengue transmission dynamics. The adapted model will then be investigated to describe the dengue epidemics that occurred in the Philippines in the year 2015-2018 using Philippine epidemiological and climatological data. We then test the identifiability of the proposed multi-strain dengue model using the reported dengue cases by morbidity week in the Philippines for the same year.